BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Michigan has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Michigan is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Michigan is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.006.6
20261.90.006.5
20271.80.006.3
20281.70.006.2
20291.60.006.1

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamtramck12219841978
Lake City3620221970
Tyre3519961967
Holt3320241969
Almena2920141994
Ola2720241974
Adrian2020181966
Lapeer2020242000
Herron1720132012
Bravo1420061974
Bell Oak1420081966
Richmond1420241999
Lawrence1320241969
Cohoctah1320242023
Adair1219951974
Traverse Cty1119921974
Galesburg1120241966
Deckerville1120241978
North Branch1019991974
Herman920221983
New Troy920241971
Coopersville920241979
No Bradley920241970
Harrietta920192011
Maple Rapids820231987

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.