BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Texas has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
177Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Texas. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Texas is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.37–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Texas is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.37–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.434.3
20262.30.424.2
20272.30.404.2
20282.30.384.2
20292.30.374.2

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twichell27120231997
Osage15720091975
Midland5720241995
Georgetown5019841967
Pecos4720172017
Progreso4220111994
Childress3819941973
Plains3820171994
Pidcoke3719931993
Manor2820232012
Smyrna2520002000
Kermit2319941994
Panhandle2320241994
Dallas2020241967
Leander1920011995
Friona1820242001
Raymondville1620241970
Chinquapin1420241996
Lag Atascosa1320241969
Pedro Creek1320031996
Kingsville1220241967
Rhome1220221967
Union Hill1220121994
Indianola1120141967
Channing1120181968

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.