BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in California has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has risen sharply in California: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in California is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in California is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.80.007.8
20273.80.007.8
20283.70.007.7
20293.70.007.7
20303.70.007.7

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moreno22520251968
Livermore12919911972
Willow Springs 27820252013
Gravesboro7419951968
Cordova7019811971
Mark West6320251972
Hollister6120111973
Coachella Cn4520002000
Harbor Lake4419911973
Alamo River4420181973
Auburn4019791970
El Toro3919991973
Coyote3720251972
Sanger3620242012
Imperial Dam3320101973
Ventucopa3319971972
Joshua Tree 22920162013
Orange Cove2520161977
Brawley2420121977
Niland2220251977
Ora Loma2220251972
Hollister 22120242012
Tracy 22120242010
Higgins Corn2020251974
Cedarville1820251974

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.