BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in California has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in California. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in California is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in California is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.60.007.6
20263.60.007.6
20273.60.007.5
20283.50.007.5
20293.50.007.5

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moreno19020241968
Livermore12919911972
Mark West8720241972
Gravesboro7419951968
Cordova7019811971
Hollister6120111973
Greenfield5120241976
Willow Springs 25020242013
Coachella Cn4520002000
Harbor Lake4419911973
Alamo River4420181973
Auburn4019791970
Ora Loma4020241972
El Toro3919991973
Folsom3620081984
Sanger3620242012
Parkfield3420241968
Imperial Dam3320101973
Ventucopa3319971972
Joshua Tree 22920162013
Orange Cove2520161977
Brawley2420121977
Hollister 22120242012
Tracy 22120242010
Tracy1720091992

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.