BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Oklahoma has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.79–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.79–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.704.7
20272.70.724.7
20282.70.744.7
20292.80.764.8
20302.80.794.8

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hooker9520251994
Indianola2620251974
Eagle City1820101989
Felt1620241972
Tegarden1220111970
Cookietown919771977
Heyburn820171993
Wainwright719991995
Mcalester619861967
Peoria620231970
Grimes520221988
Bartlesville420101973
Pocola420061992
Ardmore320041983
Beggs320231970
Rosston320061967
Cashion320191992
Sickles320211996
Clear Lake320252006
Big Cedar219931988
Phillips219941983
Mill Creek220121980
Holdenville220251967
Verden220171968
Erick220191969

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.