BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Massachusetts has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Massachusetts: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.005.6
20271.40.005.5
20281.30.005.3
20291.20.005.2
20301.10.005.1

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chilmark1419831969
Belchertown1220251967
Pittsfield1220061967
Prattville1120181966
Cummington 2920252015
E Pepperell719941967
N Orange720251968
Mansfield620251968
Littleton520251968
Marion420081969
S Barre420241976
Ware River420131997
N Oxford320241968
Princeton319721969
Chesterfield320211967
Cheshire319941969
E Dennis220081970
Brockton219891968
Warren220091968
Cummington220121974
Sheffield220061975
Warren 2220252010
Wellfleet119961971
Newburyport120121968
Maynard120221967

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.