BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Missouri is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Missouri is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.005.1
20261.40.005.0
20271.30.004.9
20281.20.004.8
20291.10.004.7

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rensselaer4020241971
Kingsville2920241992
Emden2520232019
Stet2319921972
West Plains2020232015
Sni Mills1219901967
Elmo1220212017
Gildehouse1119891979
Norborne1120232006
New Hampton1120242015
Auburn1120222021
Centertown1020191974
Kahoka2920232002
Ironton719751972
Wesco719921973
Handley720231967
Huntsville720131967
Hamilton719851972
Sedalia720241992
Frankford720241990
Watson720241991
Marshfield620231995
Diamond620232015
Mincy620192019
Deventer520241967

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.