BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Missouri is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Missouri is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.005.0
20271.30.004.9
20281.30.004.8
20291.20.004.7
20301.10.004.6

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Filley3620251975
Kingsville2920241992
Emden2520232019
Whitewater2420251996
Stet2319921972
West Plains2020232015
Sni Mills1219901967
Gildehouse1119891979
Norborne1120232006
Auburn1120222021
Centertown1020191974
Rockingham920251971
Kahoka2920232002
Ironton719751972
Wesco719921973
Huntsville720131967
Hamilton719851972
Frankford720241990
Rensselaer620251971
Marshfield620231995
Diamond620232015
Mincy620192019
Deventer520251967
Syracuse520241969
Cole Camp519901971

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.