BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in North Carolina has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in North Carolina is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in North Carolina is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.003.9
20271.40.003.9
20281.30.003.8
20291.30.003.7
20301.20.003.7

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Craven Gap4719751969
Myrtle Grove2420251967
Cherryville2419681968
Kinston2120231978
Call2020251970
Hulls Xroads2020221997
Flay2020251990
Mooresville1719891968
Rose1620191968
Waco1520231989
Beargrass1419811966
Fairmont1319811969
Genoa1320251990
Speed1120251966
Jamesville920171983
Mooresville 2820192006
Cypress Cr820221990
Jones Corner820151994
Cypress Lakes820212008
Belgrade820102010
Pinetops720101999
Hendersonvil720052005
Fairview720232005
Climax620211967
Oakboro520181978

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.