BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in New York has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in New York. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in New York is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 3.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in New York is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 3.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.74.115
20269.64.015
20279.53.815
20289.43.715
20299.33.615

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach24320131966
Number Four17820161967
Watertown6920121967
Alder Creek5320041968
Canadice L4220241970
Ballston Lk3719951969
Naples3620241967
Duanesburg3220241966
Ogdensburg3120241979
Mcdonough3020171970
Romulus2720001968
Salem2620241967
Swain 22520242011
Castile2420241967
Waddington2319981981
Rushville2020241968
Newcomb2020221971
Medusa1920241969
Branchport1820241967
Mendon1820191967
Ellenburg1720061989
Churchville1620241970
Cicero Ctr1520241966
Coventryvile1420231967
Somers1319771970

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.