BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in New York has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in New York. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in New York is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 3.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in New York is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 3.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.33.615
20279.23.515
20289.13.415
20299.03.215
20308.93.115

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach24320131966
Number Four17820161967
Watertown6920121967
Alder Creek5320041968
Ballston Lk3719951969
Mcdonough3020171970
Romulus2720001968
E Newark2620251967
Waddington2319981981
Dryden2020251966
Rushville2020241968
Newcomb2020221971
Medusa1920241969
Swain 21920252011
Branchport1820241967
Mendon1820191967
Philadelphia1820251980
Ellenburg1720061989
Coventryvile1420231967
Somers1319771970
Salem1320251967
Ogdensburg1320251979
Cobleskill1220231966
Corbettsvile1220251966
Trumansburg1220231966

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.