BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Connecticut has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has collapsed in Connecticut: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Connecticut is projected to fall about 99% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-99%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Connecticut is projected to fall about 99% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.003.2
20260.240.003.1
20270.170.003.0
20280.080.003.0
20290.000.002.9

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Hartford3419871972
E Hartland619921966
Westbrook619941973
Sherman320171973
Granby320241988
Buckingham220161972
Uncasville220181979
Greenwich220181967
Long Hill219881978
Southington220241973
New Hartford220091998
Mystic120191973
Woodstock119931981
Willimantic120001969
No Woodbury120231967
Danbury120151968
Warren119951974
Mid Haddam120241973

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.