BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Arizona has surged: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+211%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Arizona: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Arizona is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Arizona is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.1
20261.20.003.1
20271.20.003.1
20281.20.003.1
20291.20.003.1

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cactus Forest13620241993
Coolidge1819851975
Castle Butte1820062005
Ajo1520081976
Laguna1119921968
Greasewood1019931993
Hunt919761976
New River720161975
Red Rock 2720242019
Peach Spring720242006
Oatman420241998
Vicksburg419891968
Palo Verde 2420232018
Palo Verde420041992
Araby420231993
Patagonia320061985
Sunizona319971997
Hope 2320192015
Ajo 2320212009
Organ Pipe220181994
Prescott220151974
Cow Springs219921992
Williams220172001
Maine219971997
Skull Valley220031997

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.