BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Utah has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+93%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Utah: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Utah is projected to fall about 89% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Utah is projected to fall about 89% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.003.1
20260.360.003.0
20270.330.003.0
20280.290.003.0
20290.250.002.9

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fairfield9920241990
Grantsville2720242001
Snowville2520192008
Goshen2120221969
Grouse Creek1620101999
Wellington 31020162012
Lynn1020231982
Hyrum919791976
Moab819971991
Altonah719821977
Wellington 2720062004
Boulder419931993
Vernon420041992
Hanna420241998
Johnson Can420211992
Beaver320211979
Bonanza319931993
Notom319951995
E. Bear Lake220212019
Randolph220181994
Bear River220221994
Callao220132013
Delta220241987
Timpie Spg120001981
Oak City120001986

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.