BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Utah has surged: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+104%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Utah: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Utah is projected to fall about 75% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Utah is projected to fall about 75% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.003.1
20270.380.003.0
20280.350.003.0
20290.320.003.0
20300.280.002.9

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fairfield9920241990
Goshen4120251969
Snowville2520192008
Grantsville2020252001
Grouse Creek1620101999
Wellington 31020162012
Hyrum919791976
Moab819971991
Altonah719821977
Wellington 2720062004
Lynn620251982
Boulder419931993
Bear River420241994
Vernon420041992
Hanna420241998
Johnson Can420211992
Goose Creek Mtn.320252025
Kamas320251997
Bonanza319931993
Notom319951995
Promontory220252025
E. Bear Lake220212019
Randolph220181994
Callao220132013
Delta220241987

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.