BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Florida has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has risen sharply in Florida: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Florida is projected to rise about 265% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+265%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Florida is projected to rise about 265% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.004.3
20262.10.004.3
20272.10.004.3
20282.00.004.3
20292.00.004.3

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Citrus Park6220231989
Ft Waltn Bch4220111966
Chassahowitz4020142014
Belmore2820211975
Boca Raton1719941968
Webb1620112009
Blountstown1419791969
Indiantown1420171967
Indiantown 21420222018
Davie1320171987
Plantation K1120041968
Scottsmoor1020241968
Ft Lonesome920021971
Defuniak Spr920221988
Mt. Olive920152002
Crewsville920002000
Ridge Harbor920241994
Dowling Park820192009
Broad Branch720091970
Bristol719971986
Doctors Inlet 2720152014
Seminole Hls619981972
Hildreth619971989
Deanville620041991
Punta Gorda620061993

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.