BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in North Dakota has surged: up 386% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+386%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in North Dakota: up 386% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 7.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 7.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.46.412
20279.66.513
20289.76.713
20299.96.813
2030107.013

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abercrombie7720121967
Walcott6320231967
Lakota 24620252010
Parshall3920131982
Carson3720251988
Turtle Mtns3320251987
Webster3120241993
Abercrombie 23120172013
Braddock3020231991
Golva2720251988
Carpio2320231967
Bowesmont2220141974
Danzig2120141988
Bowesmont 22120162015
Emerado1920251973
Wimbledon1920251981
Bentley1720241990
Wild Rose1420251985
Niles1320251989
Ft Yates1220041969
Loraine1220191982
Rolla1020241971
Cedar Creek1020221990
Sydney919801977
Tobacco920061981

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.