BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Tennessee has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Tennessee: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.004.5
20271.90.004.5
20281.90.004.4
20291.80.004.4
20301.80.004.3

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walland3119891966
Glen2820251966
Trenton2520111980
Red Bank1819781966
Belotes Bend1520181966
Jones Gap1520191983
Soddy1219811967
Silerton1020151968
Lovell1020181968
Oliver Spgs1020221966
Smokey Jct820141968
Jefferson Cty620061974
Corryton Rd520191967
Pawpaw420111967
Whiteville420161968
Big Sandy419971987
Sweetlips419791979
White House420131966
Cornpone420191995
Petersburg320071966
Peytonsville320251966
Allens Brdge320231967
Signal Mtn219961985
Brownsville220241971
Tibbs220171967

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.