BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Montana has surged: up 332% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+332%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Montana: up 332% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Montana is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Montana is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.14.110
20277.24.210
20287.24.310
20297.34.410
20307.44.410

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.7520251995
Roy6920251988
Redstone5920251968
Lima5820251995
Sunburst5620071970
Victor5020251993
Flatwillow 24520232011
Polson4020251982
Glasgow3720251970
Augusta3020252013
Jordan3020241982
Great Falls2620251972
Webster2620252012
Oswego2220251997
Coleman Coulee2220242017
Brusett2120242010
Jordan South1820252016
Threemile Wa1820251993
Wolf Point1720242015
Twin Bridges1619761968
Ester Lake1520252016
Lambert1520242021
Church Hill1420252017
Chuffey Spring1420242024
St Xavier1320111982

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.