BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Montana has surged: up 272% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+272%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Montana: up 272% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Montana is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 4.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Montana is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 4.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.93.99.8
20266.94.09.9
20277.04.110.0
20287.14.210
20297.24.210

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.13520241995
Glasgow10920241970
Coleman Coulee6620232017
Roy6120241988
Redstone5920241968
Sunburst5620071970
Polson4920241982
Lima4720241995
Flatwillow 24520232011
Leroy4220181990
Chinook3620242015
Jordan3020241982
Webster3020242012
Oswego2520241997
Raynesford2520242016
Great Falls2420221972
Clyde Park2320242018
Victor2220241993
Brusett2120242010
Willow Creek 21820241982
Wolf Point1720242015
Twin Bridges1619761968
Lambert1520242021
Church Hill1520242017
Chuffey Spring1420242024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.