BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in New Jersey is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in New Jersey is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.70.0013
20264.40.0013
20274.10.0013
20283.80.0012
20293.60.0012

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Passaic10219691969
Clarksville5319911969
Del Haven5119911991
Albion5020061966
Woodbury Hgt3320241967
Holmansville3020091969
Croton2520021970
Deepwater2419771969
Toms River2120241966
Masonville1419701966
Ancora1019671966
Midvale1020221967
Hope919941972
Ocean City820241979
Winslow820241989
Bennett Mill 2820162016
Kemah Lake720021966
Bennett Mill620001967
Croton 2620222008
Ramseysburg620241995
Pedricktown520121991
Six Points420241978
Sandbrook420241970
Pedricktown 2420192013
Keyport320191986

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.