BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Kentucky is projected to rise about 106% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+106%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Kentucky is projected to rise about 106% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.005.8
20272.30.005.8
20282.20.005.7
20292.10.005.6
20302.10.005.6

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron Bridge3119881966
Million 23020242013
Boxville1919831966
Cedar Grove1820211966
Apex1620192006
Drakesboro1519931966
Porter1520211966
Sulphur Lick1320211966
Kings Mtn1220251967
Mckee1120231990
Staffordsvil819971997
Eastview720221968
Canton620171967
Johnsonville620211969
Bardwell 2620252006
Hegira520231996
Levee519821969
Merrimac520241968
Shelbyville519781966
Lebanon Junction520192002
Keysburg420211969
Monticello419681968
Riverqueen420092009
Beattyville 2420162008
Lovelacevile320131967

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.