BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Louisiana has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has collapsed in Louisiana: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Louisiana is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Louisiana is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.002.6
20260.410.002.6
20270.360.002.5
20280.300.002.5
20290.240.002.4

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Morgan City3719861967
Baton Rouge3620231995
Mamou2819821967
Derry2419771967
Hackberry2320131973
Creole2019781976
Cheniere1720242024
Derry 21420231995
Fort Jessup1220071999
Cypress1119871968
Clay1119701970
Vinton1020092009
Freetown920081967
Junior719881987
River Road720241987
Berwick720011987
Plettenberg619941978
Rayville619771968
Gibson620152000
Lafitte519911967
Keystone520121967
Fillmore519891968
Goodwill520092008
Grayson520082006
Gonzales520192011

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.