BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Virginia is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Virginia is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.003.4
20261.00.003.3
20270.940.003.2
20280.850.003.1
20290.770.003.0

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jerome3320231972
Moran2120141996
David1320011977
Great Falls1019781967
Waverly1019791979
Backbay1019741966
Brandy Station1020242024
Taylorstown920101967
Irisburg920241976
Stanley820241966
Chincoteag W820211992
Natural Brid720241975
Hall720171967
Churchville620241966
Putnam619811974
Surry620241977
Pungo620241975
Partlow520071978
Covington520231966
Carters Brdg520131966
Marion519821982
Brandon519931992
Newsoms420131970
Rural Retrt419981982
W Augusta320042004

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.