BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Virginia is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Virginia is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.003.4
20271.00.003.3
20280.960.003.2
20290.880.003.1
20300.800.003.1

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Irisburg4020251976
Churchville3320251966
Edinburg2520251968
Moran2120141996
David1320011977
Jerome1120251972
Great Falls1019781967
Waverly1019791979
Backbay1019741966
Brandy Station1020242024
Taylorstown920101967
Chincoteag W820211992
Natural Brid720241975
Hall720171967
Putnam619811974
Surry620241977
Pungo620241975
Partlow520071978
Covington520231966
Carters Brdg520131966
Marion519821982
Gladys520251994
Brandon519931992
Newsoms420131970
Rural Retrt419981982

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.