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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.7
20261.10.002.7
20271.10.002.7
20281.00.002.6
20291.00.002.6

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MassardARKANSAS472022
SmyrnaTEXAS252000
DerryLOUISIANA241977
CheniereLOUISIANA172024
Derry 2LOUISIANA142023
Fort JessupLOUISIANA122007
Union HillTEXAS122012
CypressLOUISIANA111987
ClayLOUISIANA111970
IndianolaOKLAHOMA102024
HopeARKANSAS62012
McalesterOKLAHOMA61986
PoyenARKANSAS51968
FillmoreLOUISIANA51989
OakdaleLOUISIANA51994
LinvilleLOUISIANA52010
GoodwillLOUISIANA52009
GraysonLOUISIANA52008
AshdownARKANSAS41999
NatchitochesLOUISIANA41991
PocolaOKLAHOMA42006
LivingstonTEXAS42024
New WaverlyTEXAS42009
Mt. SelmanTEXAS42016
HavanaARKANSAS32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.