BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Pigeon In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.002.5
20260.440.002.4
20270.410.002.4
20280.380.002.4
20290.350.002.3

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosNEW-MEXICO722017
FruitaCOLORADO452007
ParlinCOLORADO301989
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO302001
CortezCOLORADO222008
De BequeCOLORADO212024
Castle ButteARIZONA182006
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO181997
Moon PassCOLORADO142023
NewcombNEW-MEXICO122021
HarmonyCOLORADO112024
MoscaCOLORADO112024
GreasewoodARIZONA101993
AlamosaCOLORADO102024
Wellington 3UTAH102016
HuntARIZONA91976
Cortez 2COLORADO82016
GallinasNEW-MEXICO81995
MoabUTAH81997
Peach SpringARIZONA72024
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO71987
AltonahUTAH71982
Wellington 2UTAH72006
Wet Mtns.COLORADO61994
La PlataNEW-MEXICO51993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.