BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±238.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.005.2
20271.50.005.2
20281.50.005.1
20291.40.005.0
20301.30.005.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OsageTEXAS1572009
GainesvilleTEXAS432025
RhomeTEXAS122022
DallasTEXAS102025
KosseTEXAS91994
HeyburnOKLAHOMA82017
SchroederTEXAS81995
BonnerTEXAS82024
BurtonTEXAS72004
PaigeTEXAS72025
HobsonTEXAS62000
Oak Grove 2TEXAS52011
Three RiversTEXAS52000
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA42010
E GeorgetownTEXAS41979
CreedmoreTEXAS42014
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA32004
BeggsOKLAHOMA32023
MuldoonTEXAS32025
Lone OakTEXAS32018
Oak GroveTEXAS31989
GauseTEXAS31997
Massey LakeTEXAS32022
Glen RoseTEXAS31994
SadlerTEXAS32017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.