BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±289.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±289.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±289.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.005.4
20261.60.005.3
20271.60.005.2
20281.50.005.2
20291.40.005.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OsageTEXAS1572009
DallasTEXAS202024
RhomeTEXAS122022
KosseTEXAS91994
HeyburnOKLAHOMA82017
SchroederTEXAS81995
BonnerTEXAS82024
BurtonTEXAS72004
HobsonTEXAS62000
Oak Grove 2TEXAS52011
Three RiversTEXAS52000
PaigeTEXAS52022
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA42010
MuldoonTEXAS42015
E GeorgetownTEXAS41979
CreedmoreTEXAS42014
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA32004
BeggsOKLAHOMA32023
Lone OakTEXAS32018
Oak GroveTEXAS31989
GauseTEXAS31997
Massey LakeTEXAS32022
Glen RoseTEXAS31994
SadlerTEXAS32017
Mount ZionTEXAS32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.