BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-72%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Rock Pigeon In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2024 — from 0.07 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±400.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±400.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2024 — from 0.07 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±400.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.110.002.2
20210.080.002.2
20220.040.002.2
20230.010.002.1
20240.000.002.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO91999
PatagoniaARIZONA32006
SunizonaARIZONA31997
PrescottARIZONA22015
WilliamsARIZONA22017
MaineARIZONA21997
Skull ValleyARIZONA22003
PinetopARIZONA21994
SahuaritaARIZONA22019
McnealARIZONA22017
PomereneARIZONA11985
DragoonARIZONA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.