BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 7.4–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 7.4–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026168.025
2027167.825
2028167.724
2029167.524
2030167.424

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN1292025
HamtramckMICHIGAN1221984
PackertownINDIANA972004
BismarkOHIO781995
OmroWISCONSIN702001
EdenWISCONSIN702025
Omro 2WISCONSIN702025
Cherry ValILLINOIS622003
GreshamWISCONSIN572025
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN502023
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN482025
EvergreenMINNESOTA482025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN382025
CascoWISCONSIN372025
CaledoniaMINNESOTA362010
StratfordWISCONSIN362025
TyreMICHIGAN351996
GrimmsWISCONSIN342021
KielWISCONSIN342025
ManitowocWISCONSIN322024
LagrangeINDIANA312025
N AndoverWISCONSIN312025
WiotaWISCONSIN312025
New LisbonWISCONSIN302025
AlmenaMICHIGAN292014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.