BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.005.3
20272.10.005.2
20282.00.005.0
20291.80.004.8
20301.60.004.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones BeachNEW-YORK2432013
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY531991
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY511991
AlbionNEW-JERSEY502006
Snow HillMARYLAND451976
MillingtonMARYLAND442025
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY442025
LargoMARYLAND431981
JonesMARYLAND421994
HolleyvilleDELAWARE342004
HughesvilleMARYLAND302019
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY302009
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY241977
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY212024
Forest GroveMARYLAND202023
Mt PleasantDELAWARE182019
EastonMARYLAND182025
JessupMARYLAND162025
Golden HillMARYLAND142025
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS141983
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY141970
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE131980
NewarkMARYLAND132024
HarmonyMARYLAND122017
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.