BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Piedmont has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has collapsed in Piedmont: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Piedmont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Piedmont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.007.4
20260.000.007.4
20270.000.007.4
20280.000.007.4
20290.000.007.4

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AkronPENNSYLVANIA2141997
PassaicNEW-JERSEY1021969
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA491988
AspersPENNSYLVANIA431989
Sporting HilPENNSYLVANIA411977
Bald FriarMARYLAND361996
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA362024
PottstownPENNSYLVANIA351987
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA331996
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA312022
HiramGEORGIA302018
LabottPENNSYLVANIA281983
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA262024
CrotonNEW-JERSEY252002
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA241968
PendletonSOUTH-CAROLINA211976
MoranVIRGINIA212014
MadonnaMARYLAND202022
Hulls XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA202022
EmmitsburgMARYLAND172024
MooresvilleNORTH-CAROLINA171989
WacoNORTH-CAROLINA152023
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA152000
Owings 2SOUTH-CAROLINA152016
DavidVIRGINIA132001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.