BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
272Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.006.9
20263.00.006.7
20272.80.006.5
20282.60.006.2
20292.30.006.0

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GaryINDIANA1691999
ItascaILLINOIS1162024
DecaturINDIANA822024
HumboldtILLINOIS742024
Camp PointILLINOIS602017
AldenILLINOIS542023
TecumsehOHIO521982
W CarrolltonOHIO522015
TroyOHIO511996
PortageINDIANA402004
RensselaerMISSOURI402024
GazaIOWA382023
ClarksdaleILLINOIS372022
KentonOHIO372013
WilmingtonOHIO371996
StreatorILLINOIS322024
KingsvilleMISSOURI292024
Mt VernonILLINOIS282022
CaledoniaILLINOIS262024
MaplewoodINDIANA262021
Trading PostKANSAS252024
EmdenMISSOURI252023
WabashINDIANA242024
Le RoyMINNESOTA242024
BotkinsOHIO242019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.