BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
275Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.006.9
20273.00.006.7
20282.80.006.5
20292.50.006.2
20302.30.006.0

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GaryINDIANA1691999
RaymondWISCONSIN942025
Camp PointILLINOIS602017
LakevilleMINNESOTA582025
GazaIOWA552025
TecumsehOHIO521982
W CarrolltonOHIO522015
ItascaILLINOIS512025
TroyOHIO511996
DecaturINDIANA462025
PortageINDIANA402004
ClarksdaleILLINOIS372022
KentonOHIO372013
WilmingtonOHIO371996
FilleyMISSOURI362025
Trading PostKANSAS352025
WabashINDIANA302025
HudsonIOWA292025
KingsvilleMISSOURI292024
Mt VernonILLINOIS282022
MaplewoodINDIANA262021
Rock ValleyIOWA252025
EmdenMISSOURI252023
BotkinsOHIO242019
FrankfortINDIANA232022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.