BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+227%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.2 (95% range 4.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.2 (95% range 4.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.93.99.8
20267.04.09.9
20277.04.110
20287.14.110
20297.24.210

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TwichellTEXAS2712023
HobbsNEW-MEXICO812024
Sheridan LakCOLORADO632016
MidlandTEXAS572024
HookerOKLAHOMA542024
PecosTEXAS472017
EdisonCOLORADO432024
PlainsTEXAS382017
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA322024
JulesburgCOLORADO292021
MarslandNEBRASKA282018
LingleWYOMING272024
Adams Co.COLORADO262022
ChugwaterWYOMING262024
PlymellKANSAS242024
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO241975
KermitTEXAS231994
PanhandleTEXAS232024
RushCOLORADO202022
GilpinCOLORADO192024
FlaglerCOLORADO192024
GrigstonKANSAS192024
KimballNEBRASKA192022
FrionaTEXAS182024
VillegreenCOLORADO172017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.