BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 274% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+274%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 274% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.14.110
20277.24.210
20287.34.310
20297.34.410
20307.44.410

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FlaglerCOLORADO1392025
HookerOKLAHOMA952025
TwichellTEXAS742025
Sheridan LakCOLORADO632016
PecosTEXAS472017
GruverTEXAS452025
PlainsTEXAS382017
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA322024
JulesburgCOLORADO292021
MarslandNEBRASKA282018
EllicottCOLORADO272025
MidlandTEXAS272025
LingleWYOMING272024
Adams Co.COLORADO262022
ChugwaterWYOMING262024
Pine BluffWYOMING252025
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO241975
GilpinCOLORADO232025
LamesaTEXAS232025
KermitTEXAS231994
GrigstonKANSAS192024
Two ButtesCOLORADO172025
VillegreenCOLORADO172017
NinaviewCOLORADO172018
FrionaTEXAS172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.