BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 2.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 2.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025113.718
2026113.518
2027113.318
2028103.118
2029102.917

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CloverPENNSYLVANIA1002024
WatertownNEW-YORK692012
Alder CreekNEW-YORK532004
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA492024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA482023
HinesburgVERMONT461994
Canadice LNEW-YORK422024
HiramOHIO422019
HebronOHIO402016
Ballston LkNEW-YORK371995
NaplesNEW-YORK362024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK322024
MaysvilleOHIO322012
OgdensburgNEW-YORK312024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA292024
RomulusNEW-YORK272000
SalemNEW-YORK262024
CastileNEW-YORK242024
New SomersetOHIO241993
WaddingtonNEW-YORK231998
RushvilleNEW-YORK202024
GarrettsvileOHIO201991
BranchportNEW-YORK182024
MendonNEW-YORK182019
Grand IsleVERMONT182023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.