BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Great Basin has surged: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+249%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Great Basin: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Pigeon In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Great Basin is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.1–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Great Basin is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.1–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.12.08.2
20275.12.08.2
20285.12.08.2
20295.22.18.2
20305.22.18.3

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AdrianOREGON2232025
RirieIDAHO1322025
FairfieldUTAH992024
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON952022
UmatillaOREGON902025
Mud LakeIDAHO742025
OdessaWASHINGTON732025
WapatoWASHINGTON692022
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON672025
MoraIDAHO562025
OrdnanceOREGON461979
PocatelloIDAHO412019
GoshenUTAH412025
ConnellWASHINGTON372015
Lone RockOREGON362021
Blacks CreekIDAHO322017
BlitzenOREGON321981
MesaWASHINGTON322008
CecilOREGON302025
Flook LakeOREGON282004
Trout CreekOREGON252021
SnowvilleUTAH252019
Pasadena ValIDAHO222016
GardnervilleNEVADA222012
YakimaWASHINGTON222025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.