BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+25%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 246% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+246%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 246% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.004.2
20271.80.004.2
20281.90.004.2
20291.90.004.2
20301.90.004.3

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO212023
MesillaNEW-MEXICO182000
RodeoNEW-MEXICO151995
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO112025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO91970
Ft. StocktonTEXAS62024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO52025
ComstockTEXAS52011
GirvinTEXAS52009
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO41975
Delaware CrkTEXAS41980
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22024
GageNEW-MEXICO22025
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO22021
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22006
CanutilloTEXAS22025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12022
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO11992
ShafterTEXAS11984
SlaughterTEXAS12021
OzonaTEXAS11995
PresidioTEXAS12013
Sierra BlancTEXAS12018
MarathonTEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.