BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+100%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Rock Pigeon In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.004.2
20261.90.004.3
20272.00.004.3
20282.00.004.3
20292.00.004.3

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO212023
MesillaNEW-MEXICO182000
RodeoNEW-MEXICO151995
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO142024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO91970
Ft. StocktonTEXAS62024
CanutilloTEXAS62024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO52024
ComstockTEXAS52011
GirvinTEXAS52009
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO41975
Delaware CrkTEXAS41980
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22016
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO22021
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22006
GageNEW-MEXICO11992
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12022
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO11992
ShafterTEXAS11984
SlaughterTEXAS12021
OzonaTEXAS11995
PresidioTEXAS12013
Sierra BlancTEXAS12018
MarathonTEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.