BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 384% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+384%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 383% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.5–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.5–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.12.26.0
20264.22.36.1
20274.32.46.2
20284.32.46.2
20294.42.56.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coleman CouleeMONTANA662023
RoyMONTANA612024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA452023
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA442022
LeroyMONTANA422018
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA352015
JordanMONTANA302024
WebsterMONTANA302024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA302024
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA272023
BrusettMONTANA212024
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA212015
RavenWYOMING182024
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA172024
UptonWYOMING152024
Seely 2WYOMING152024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA142024
HighwoodMONTANA132024
St XavierMONTANA132011
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA132023
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA122004
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA112011
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA111991
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA102022
DwyerWYOMING102019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.