BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
338Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.4 (95% range 1.2–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.4 (95% range 1.2–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.91.78.1
20274.81.68.0
20284.71.57.8
20294.51.37.7
20304.41.27.6

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BirminghamALABAMA2311995
WilliamsportMARYLAND1332025
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA1281979
RydePENNSYLVANIA1092005
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA922025
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA772025
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA562009
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA531977
Craven GapNORTH-CAROLINA471975
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA411988
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA401980
DoylesburgPENNSYLVANIA402023
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA402025
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA392001
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA352025
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA352003
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA332025
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA332025
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA322024
WallandTENNESSEE311989
McdonoughNEW-YORK302017
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA282025
E NewarkNEW-YORK262025
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA262025
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA252023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.