BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±366.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±366.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±366.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.0010
20263.10.0010
20273.10.0010
20283.00.0010.0
20293.00.009.9

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ProgresoTEXAS422011
RaymondvilleTEXAS162024
Pedro CreekTEXAS132003
KingsvilleTEXAS122024
Encinal 2TEXAS92024
SejitaTEXAS82008
RachalTEXAS71996
ZapataTEXAS71982
RandadoTEXAS52019
San YgnacioTEXAS41980
EncinalTEXAS32010
HondoTEXAS32014
GuerraTEXAS31988
LaredoTEXAS32011
HeidelbergTEXAS32024
CatarinaTEXAS21992
MillettTEXAS22004
Agua NuevaTEXAS12004
George WestTEXAS12024
La PryorTEXAS12017
El IndioTEXAS12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.