BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
144Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.004.9
20262.10.004.8
20272.00.004.8
20281.90.004.7
20291.90.004.6

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY311988
Million 2KENTUCKY302024
Wheeler DamALABAMA282023
NewberryINDIANA222024
West PlainsMISSOURI202023
BoxvilleKENTUCKY191983
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY182021
PimentoINDIANA172022
MarshallARKANSAS162019
ApexKENTUCKY162019
DrakesboroKENTUCKY151993
PorterKENTUCKY152021
Belotes BendTENNESSEE152018
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY132021
CentertownMISSOURI102019
BirdsILLINOIS82022
Clear SpringINDIANA72024
HustonvilleKENTUCKY72024
EastviewKENTUCKY72022
IrontonMISSOURI71975
WescoMISSOURI71992
HandleyMISSOURI72023
SedaliaMISSOURI72024
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA62005
LurtonARKANSAS61995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.