BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 3.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 3.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.33.611
20267.33.611
20277.23.611
20287.23.511
20297.23.511

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlasgowMONTANA1092024
CourtlandMINNESOTA842024
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA772012
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA632023
RedstoneMONTANA592024
SunburstMONTANA562007
ChandlerMINNESOTA402023
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA392013
ChokioMINNESOTA382024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA382024
ChinookMONTANA362024
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA342023
SpartaNEBRASKA322021
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA312024
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA312017
GluekMINNESOTA252019
OswegoMONTANA252024
Great FallsMONTANA242022
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
HartlandMINNESOTA222017
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA222014
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA222024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA212014
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA212016
OkleeMINNESOTA192021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.