BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.53.811
20277.53.711
20287.53.711
20297.43.711
20307.43.711

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA772012
ChokioMINNESOTA732025
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA632023
RedstoneMONTANA592025
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA572025
SunburstMONTANA562007
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA462025
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA392013
GlasgowMONTANA372025
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA342023
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA332025
BeltramiMINNESOTA322025
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA312024
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA312017
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA302023
CourtlandMINNESOTA292025
Great FallsMONTANA262025
GluekMINNESOTA252019
FranklinMINNESOTA232025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
HartlandMINNESOTA222017
OswegoMONTANA222025
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA222014
MccallsburgIOWA212025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA212014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.