BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 469% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+469%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 469% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Rock Pigeon In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.0011
20263.20.0011
20273.10.0011
20283.10.0011
20293.10.0010

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cactus ForestARIZONA1362024
Willow Springs 2CALIFORNIA502024
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA452000
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA442018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA332010
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA292016
BrawleyCALIFORNIA242012
CoolidgeARIZONA181985
AjoARIZONA152008
BlytheCALIFORNIA151977
NilandCALIFORNIA142024
Jean LakeNEVADA122013
LagunaARIZONA111992
Calif CityCALIFORNIA112015
LenwoodCALIFORNIA112012
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA81996
TronaCALIFORNIA81997
CimaCALIFORNIA81998
New RiverARIZONA72016
Red Rock 2ARIZONA72024
Lone PineCALIFORNIA72009
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA62024
BeattyNEVADA62017
OnyxCALIFORNIA51998
BarstowCALIFORNIA51998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.