BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has risen sharply in Northern Rockies: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Pigeon In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.0–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.0–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.964.6
20272.80.984.6
20282.81.004.6
20292.81.04.7
20302.91.04.7

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CodyWYOMING4032025
Pablo Res.MONTANA752025
LimaMONTANA582025
DonnybrookOREGON541997
VictorMONTANA502025
PolsonMONTANA402025
AugustaMONTANA302025
HarmonyWYOMING252023
ClarkWYOMING222010
LovellWYOMING222025
CurlewWASHINGTON202013
Threemile WaMONTANA182025
Twin BridgesMONTANA161976
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON162021
FeathervilleIDAHO142015
Church HillMONTANA142025
GlenMONTANA132023
Freeman CreekMONTANA132016
Crane CreekIDAHO122015
MidvaleWYOMING122022
AnchorWYOMING102005
BoulderMONTANA92025
Willow Creek 2MONTANA92025
Clyde ParkMONTANA92025
DuboisWYOMING92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.