BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.09–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.09–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.153.4
20271.80.133.4
20281.70.123.4
20291.70.113.4
20301.70.093.3

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChildressTEXAS381994
LibertyNEBRASKA331997
JohnstownNEBRASKA252025
GoveKANSAS202013
RexfordKANSAS202024
HendleyNEBRASKA202025
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA182010
KennedyNEBRASKA152017
BookerTEXAS152025
KenesawNEBRASKA142025
TegardenOKLAHOMA122011
KearneyNEBRASKA112025
BartleyNEBRASKA112025
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA111992
PhillipsburgKANSAS102025
HackberryTEXAS102012
WilliamsTEXAS102025
ColdwaterKANSAS92017
CookietownOKLAHOMA91977
HollenbergKANSAS72021
SurpriseNEBRASKA72025
BrownleeNEBRASKA72007
AlbertKANSAS62023
DamarKANSAS62016
Liberty 3NEBRASKA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.