BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow

PasserellidaeForest birdsZonotrichia albicollis

White-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
452RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the White-throated Sparrow

The White-throated Sparrow (Zonotrichia albicollis) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 452 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 13 states, most concentrated in the Atlantic Northern Forest.
Family
Passerellidae · Forest birds

Notable White-throated Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-throated Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.56 (95% range 0.18–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.56 (95% range 0.18–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.271.0
20260.630.251.0
20270.610.230.99
20280.590.200.97
20290.560.180.95

Where the White-throated Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording White-throated Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend by State

White-throated Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Connecticut-64%196810
Maine-73%196878
Massachusetts-98%196822
Michigan+27%196862
Minnesota+72%196948
New Hampshire-79%196825
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a1
New York-71%196889
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a2
Pennsylvania-94%196830
Vermont-81%196826
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a2
Wisconsin+20%196857

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

White-throated Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes-62%19839
Boreal Hardwood Transition+60%1968127
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-71%196839
Atlantic Northern Forest-77%1968155
Prairie Hardwood Transition-23%196832
Appalachian Mountains-87%196861
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-98%196828

White-throated Sparrow Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 67% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.