BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.29
20260.130.000.29
20270.130.000.29
20280.130.000.29
20290.120.000.29

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN31998
EvergreenMINNESOTA22024
HolwayWISCONSIN21989
MerrillWISCONSIN22024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN22023
SaxevilleWISCONSIN22024
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN21989
EdenWISCONSIN22002
GreshamWISCONSIN22024
GrimmsWISCONSIN22019
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11983
RemusMICHIGAN12016
No BradleyMICHIGAN11988
JuniataMICHIGAN11998
HungerfordMICHIGAN12016
Brook ParkMINNESOTA12006
GlenwoodMINNESOTA11996
DresserWISCONSIN11995
LoraineWISCONSIN12016
CumberlandWISCONSIN12011
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN11976
CadottWISCONSIN11983
UnityWISCONSIN12022
MatherWISCONSIN12021
ElderonWISCONSIN12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.