BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has risen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181224
2026181224
2027181224
2028181224
2029181224

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JordanMINNESOTA822023
Hart LakeMINNESOTA792024
Crane LakeMINNESOTA692024
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA672022
GlendaleMINNESOTA672024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA652024
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN532024
WaskishMINNESOTA502024
ChisholmMINNESOTA502024
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA482024
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN452024
Nett LakeMINNESOTA392024
HovlandMINNESOTA372024
MareniscoMICHIGAN352019
LockportMINNESOTA352024
Red LakeMINNESOTA332024
OntonagonMICHIGAN282019
BabbittMINNESOTA282023
MontrealWISCONSIN282024
Imp LakeMICHIGAN232019
Island LakeMINNESOTA212017
Land O LakesWISCONSIN212016
Ned LakeMICHIGAN192024
CunardMICHIGAN192021
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN192024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.