BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Pennsylvania has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Sparrow Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has collapsed in Pennsylvania: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.16
20260.000.000.16
20270.000.000.16
20280.000.000.16
20290.000.000.16

White-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Starlight 2620082008
Ellenton320111985
Rasselas220092009
Little Marsh220122006
Mawr Glen219911984
Marsh Hill220241983
Pocono Summit220181966
Greentown220011969
Poyntelle220171973
Mifflintown219801980
Slippery Rk119911991
Teepleville119731973
Pocono Summit 2120092006
Lynch119861986
Lovelton120191999
Ridgway119921967
Roulette120082008
Ravensburg119751975
Rush120231970
Bow Bridge120041969
Honesdale120101993
Starlight119851975
Canadensis120132013
Susquehanna120061975
Wakena119691969

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotavermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.