BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Michigan has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-throated Sparrow in Michigan. See the full index history below.

White-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Michigan is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Michigan is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.13.711
20267.23.811
20277.23.811
20287.23.811
20297.33.811

White-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brocky Lake5320241980
Gibbs City4520241979
Marenisco3520191981
Ontonagon2820191967
Imp Lake2320191992
Ned Lake1920241986
Cunard1920211973
Bootjack1820231967
Gilchrist1520211974
Sidnaw1520241993
Herman1220221983
Ishpeming1220231980
Maple Grove1120241967
Shingleton1120241967
Pine River1120211992
Betchler Lks1120241992
Crystal Fls1020241979
Raco1020241971
Cathro1020161967
Ensign1020102006
Tahquamenon920241974
Muskallonge820241966
Hubbard Lake819961973
Seney Nwr820241992
Cluster Lakes820102006

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemassachusettsminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniavermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.