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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

White-throated Sparrow in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.8–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026115.716
2027115.716
2028115.716
2029115.816
2030115.816

White-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jordan7620251993
Hart Lake7320251967
Sherry Lake6720221969
Crane Lake6020251969
Chisholm5020242019
Glendale4620251993
Waskish4520251978
Sawbill Lndg4120251973
Nett Lake3920242013
Lockport3520251967
Hovland3220251973
Sawbill Camp3120251993
Red Lake2520251993
Island Lake2120171967
Cromwell1820251967
Bigfork1420251993
Lude1320251978
Blackduck1320222004
Floodwood1220251967
Babbitt1020251994
Bemidji819801967
Mahtowa820231993
Mcgregor820251993
Cass Lake720161980
Little Fork720241969

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniavermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.