BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 5.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 5.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025115.817
2026115.817
2027115.817
2028115.817
2029115.817

White-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jordan8220231993
Hart Lake7920241967
Crane Lake6920241969
Sherry Lake6720221969
Glendale6720241993
Sawbill Camp6520241993
Waskish5020241978
Chisholm5020242019
Sawbill Lndg4820241973
Nett Lake3920242013
Hovland3720241973
Lockport3520241967
Red Lake3320241993
Babbitt2820231994
Island Lake2120171967
Floodwood1520241967
Bigfork1520241993
Cromwell1320241967
Blackduck1320222004
Bemidji819801967
Mahtowa820231993
Cass Lake720161980
Little Fork720241969
Debs620241969
Lude620231978

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniavermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.