BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Maine has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Sparrow Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in Maine: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Maine is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Maine is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.20.1918
20268.80.0018
20278.50.0017
20288.10.0017
20297.80.0017

White-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northfield9319811976
Clayton Lake8420081977
Pillsbury Pd7019681968
Waite6819771977
Telos6120061995
Seboomook Lk5920141972
Heron Lake5120031983
Wytopitlock4319981976
Baker Lake4320091994
Ludlow4119981968
Clayton Lake 23820132010
Baxter3619881977
Grnd Lk Strm3620001966
Baker Lake 23520132010
Weeks Brook3220161995
Cooper3020211975
Big Twenty 23020092009
Benton2819801971
St David2820051982
Big Twenty2820081993
Yankeetuladi2520091994
Wilson Mills2420241983
Carrying Pl2420241979
Moose River2320081983
Nesowadnehun2220211990

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniavermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.