BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

White-throated Sparrow in Vermont has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Sparrow Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has collapsed in Vermont: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.006.5
20272.00.006.2
20281.70.005.9
20291.40.005.6
20301.10.005.4

White-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newbury 21820232005
Waterville1419801967
East Haven1020251966
Newbury1020041986
Hardwick920241966
East Calais820251966
Middlesex720251968
Stratton620251966
Northfld Fls620251980
Greensboro520251967
St Johnsbury420251970
Landgrove220251966
Stowe220241988
Marlboro120181966
North Pownal120251966
S Reading120181966
Gaysville120251966
Post Mills120241966
Shaftsbury120021966
S Wallingfrd120181966
W Rutland120061966
Fletcher120241968
Hinesburg119941966
Colchester120161986
Grand Isle119951967

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.