BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

White-throated Sparrow in New York has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in New York: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-throated Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in New York is projected to rise about 113% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.10–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+113%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±156.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in New York is projected to rise about 113% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.10–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.385.2
20272.70.315.1
20282.60.245.0
20292.60.175.0
20302.50.104.9

White-throated Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter Lake5919751968
Sabattis5219831966
St Regis Fls2720171976
Underwood 22620092005
N Wilmurt2319981967
Dannemora2320061968
Blue Ridge S2220101969
Newcomb1920221971
Horseshoe L.1720171992
Inlet1620171979
Parishville1520251968
Hope Falls1319951968
Ellenburg1320061989
Tupper Lake1219761968
Underwood1219961967
Highmarket1020251967
Gabriels1020251975
Sciota1020061968
E Newark920082008
Old Forge920061971
Mcdonough820171967
Oxford819761967
Warrensburg620191966
Wanakena620251980
West Bangor619991990

White-throated Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-dakotapennsylvaniavermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.