BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±232.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±232.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±232.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.16
20260.030.000.16
20270.030.000.15
20280.030.000.15
20290.020.000.14

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E NewarkNEW-YORK92008
McdonoughNEW-YORK82017
OxfordNEW-YORK81976
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA62008
MilfordNEW-YORK52023
CobleskillNEW-YORK41993
SwainNEW-YORK32007
EllentonPENNSYLVANIA32011
MedusaNEW-YORK22012
CooperstownNEW-YORK21977
Platte CoveNEW-YORK22018
Whitney PtNEW-YORK22007
CoventryvileNEW-YORK22017
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK21974
Phillips CrNEW-YORK22024
Oxford 2NEW-YORK22021
Swain 2NEW-YORK22024
Orange LakeNEW-YORK21991
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA22009
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA22012
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA21991
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA22024
Pocono SummitPENNSYLVANIA22018
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA22001
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.