BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

White-throated Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Sparrow has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-throated Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.78–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.78–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.92.012
20266.61.711
20276.21.411
20285.91.111
20295.60.7810

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording White-throated Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE931981
Clayton LakeMAINE842008
Pillsbury PdMAINE701968
WaiteMAINE681977
TelosMAINE612006
Seboomook LkMAINE592014
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK591975
SabattisNEW-YORK521983
Heron LakeMAINE512003
WytopitlockMAINE431998
Baker LakeMAINE432009
LudlowMAINE411998
Clayton Lake 2MAINE382013
BaxterMAINE361988
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE362000
Baker Lake 2MAINE352013
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE342024
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE332024
Weeks BrookMAINE322016
CooperMAINE302021
Big Twenty 2MAINE302009
BentonMAINE281980
St DavidMAINE282005
Big TwentyMAINE282008
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK272017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.